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Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate

The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.

Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."

Appeal for Wider Discussion

Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."