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Industry experts have voiced considerable doubt regarding recent predictions that US oil giants will rapidly commit vast sums of dollars to rebuild the country's dilapidated oil infrastructure.

Demand for Solid Assurances

Lacking an absolute assurance of complete repayment from the Washington, experts believe international firms to act with extreme caution.

“It would be premature to comment on any potential investments,” a representative said recently.

The aggressive schedule of under a year and a half has been boldly proposed. However, industry projections paint a longer timeline.

A Likely Timeline

“It is likely going to take multiple years for any significant output increase,” noted an chief investment officer.

He suggested energy firms would likely spend:

• Year one: Sorting through new operating agreements.
• Year two: Beginning overhaul of infrastructure.
• Year three: Being able to boost output.

This suggests an increase of around 500,000 bpd perhaps by late 2028.

Interest vs. Appetite for Risk

There is a key distinction between firms' attention and their appetite to invest substantially.

“I think their interest is an high score, on a scale of ten. But their appetite is a much lower, because there is no clarity yet.”

Seasoned diplomats in the country share this caution. They believe that companies will publicly talk up the opportunity while actually proceeding with great care.

The Colossal Price Tag

The financial bill would be vast. University estimates suggest that increasing production by between half a million and a million barrels per day would require more than $10 billion in funding over several years.

But, restoring production to historical levels of around 2.5 million barrels per day could require a monumental $80 billion to $90 billion over many more years.

The Unanswered Question of Government Backing

The suggestion of firms being reimbursed by the US taxpayer has been often raised. However, concrete details on any guarantee have not yet been forthcoming.

The absence of clarity is the key impediment for the sector's caution. Firms seek protection against nationalization and the chance that a different government could renege on any deal.

“They must be insured against political change, that we’ve seen in Venezuela already.”

In summary, while rhetorical promises runs strong, the practical risks suggest a road of extreme caution for potential large-scale investment in the country's oil sector.